Long term outlook: Up
Medium Term Outlook: Down
Short Term Outlook: Sideways to Down
Medium Term Revision Point: Break above 21.31
Potential Medium Term Target: 8.45 and lower
With a potential wave 1 at the December 22, ’09 low (16.78), followed by wave 2 at the January 11, ’10 high (18.89) and a possible wave 3 at the February 5, ’10 low (14.66), we assess to be currently in a potential wave 4. At the February 22, ’10 high (16.55) we have possibly completed the first leg of wave 4, i.e., a.4. Since the February 22, ’10 high, as the main image depicts, we may have had a completed wave b.4 at the February 25, ’10 low (15.64) and since then, making wave c.4 to complete wave 4. If this scenario is correct, we expect to have a very small wave a.4, considering that to maintain our outlook we will look for the price closing below the 16.96 mark, which is the close of wave 1 on December 22, ’09. Our current target for the end of wave c.4, in this scenario, is close to the 16.80 to the 16.90 mark.
As per the second case scenario, as is depicted in the second image, after wave A.4 at the February 22, ’10 high (16.55), we are probably forming wave B.4 in an Expanded Flat formation, with wave a.B.4 at the February 25, ’10 low (15.64), wave b.B.4 at or near completion at the weekly close on February 26, ’10, and likely to be followed by sell off close to or below the February 25, ’10 low (15.64) to complete wave c.B.4. As per this scenario, we should get another rally for wave C.4, which should end close to the 16.80 to the 16.90 mark.
In case the price rises to and closes above the 16.96 level, it would force a review of our medium term wave count, as in that case, a possible impulse wave count down from the December 3, ’09 high will be seriously challenged.