Long term outlook: Up
Medium Term Outlook: Down
Short Term Outlook: Sideways to Up
Medium Term Revision Point: Break above 21.31
Potential Medium Term Target: 8.45 and lower
With a potential wave 1 at the December 22, ’09 low (16.78), followed by wave 2 at the January 11, ’10 high (18.89 and a possible wave 3 at the February 5, ’10 low (14.66), we assess to be currently in a potential wave 4. At the February 19, ’10 close at 16.27, we may be at or close to the potential completion of wave 4 or, in the least, the first leg (wave a of a-b-c) of wave 4. These two possibilities create the two scenarios that we
shall discuss below:
In the main image, we have presented the view according to which we are at or near the completion of wave 4. As per this scenario, we expect the resumption of the downward trend close at hand. In this situation, we would expect the completion of wave 4 at or close to the 16.75 level, from where a short or medium term downward move is likely to commence.
As per the second case scenario, as depicted in the second image, we are approaching only the first leg of wave 4, i.e., wave a.4, at the close of February 19, ’10 high (16.27). In the case of this scenario, we would expect a three wave decline for wave b.4 to be followed by another five-wave advance to complete wave c.4, completing the fourth wave. We would expect a five-wave downwards move, once we reach the termination point of the fourth wave.