Summary
Long term outlook: Up
Medium Term Outlook: Down
Short Term Outlook: Sideways to Down
Medium Term Revision Point: Break above 21.31
Potential Medium Term Target: 8.45 and lower
There weren’t any surprises in the market during the week ended February 5, 2010. On February 5, 2010, the market broke below our first target at 15.10, went down to 14.66 and then closed at 15.15.
The main chart provides our outlook of the current situation. With the upward move starting from 10/28/08 (now shown in the image) possibly completing at the 12/03/09 high (19.46), we are now at the start of a possible long term C wave correction of which wave 1 seems to have completed at the December 22, ’09 low (16.78) followed by an Expanded Flat correction completing wave 2 at the January 11, ’10 high (18.89), from where we have so far had a very swift sell off – characteristic of the third wave sell off – of which we have marked a possible four sub-waves completing at the February 3, ’10 high (16.94) and a tentative projection for the fifth sub-wave, most likely completing at around the 14.51 level. Nevertheless, the possibility of the fifth wave having already completed at the February 6, ’10 low (14.66) cannot be ruled out. In any case, depending upon the completion of the fifth wave, we will subsequently see at least a three wave correction for the whole of wave 3 or c, which should be seen as a slightly longer term shorting opportunity at its potential termination points.