- Long term outlook: Up
Medium Term Outlook: Down
Short Term Outlook: Sideways to Down
Medium Term Revision Point: Break above 21.31
Potential Medium Term Target: 8.45 and lower
Although the direction of the last week’s move was in keeping with our assessment presented in the last week’s report, the sell off during the last three days was almost too deep for continuing with our preferred scenario presented during the last week’s report. Even if not nullified by the price action during the week, yet it seems more likely that the coming days will see it being nullified, as the market breaks the December 30 low at 16.77. As a result, the alternative scenario presented in our last week’s report gets promoted to being our preferred scenario during this week.
As shown in the main image, the January 11, 2010 high at 18.89 seems to be in a position of wave 2, from where the prices have moved down in a move of which a three wave sub-division can almost clearly be pointed out. If this is correct then we are most likely looking at the iiird wave of either a ‘c’ or the first sub-wave of a 3rd wave in process. Keeping this outlook in perspective, we would expect a small pull back to start the week before we get to see a further sell off to around 16.25, to complete the vth sub-wave of wave ‘c’ or 3 down.