- Long term outlook: Up
Medium Term Outlook: Down
Short Term Outlook: Sideways to Down
Medium Term Revision Point: Break above 21.31
Potential Medium Term Target: 8.45 and lower
Last week’s move proved us wrong. Rather than wasting any time with a ‘downward move in a corrective formation’, as foretold in our last report, the market shot up in an impulsive ‘i’ or ‘a’, retracing almost exactly 61.8% of the move down from December 3 to December 30 (see: main image).
With the current preferred scenario given in the main image, we would expect an initial downward move in the upcoming days. This downward move is likely to take the price down to between 17.60 and 17.10. Subsequently, we are likely to see another upward move, which would most likely hold below the December 3 high at 19.47. A break above the 19.47 high will force a revision to our short term outlook.