Long term outlook: Up
Medium Term Outlook: Down
Short Term Outlook: Sideways to Down
Medium Term Revision Point: Break above 21.31
Potential Medium Term Target: 8.45 and lower
With the prices breaking slightly below the December 22 low, our preferred count is revised as shown in the main image. Our preferred outlook now expects the completion of wave a.4 at the December 11 low and wave b.4 at the December 17 high. If this is correct then the most likely scenario seems to be the formation of an ending diagonal for wave c.4, as shown in the main image, during the up coming days.
According to this scenario, we should expect to see a downward move in a corrective formation in the upcoming days. A likely target for this downward move should be around the 16.40 and then the 15.70 levels. After reaching close to this target, we would expect another rally towards the December 4 highs.
For the coming week, we shall be looking for high probability low risk sell signals around the 17.16 to the 17.50 levels, with stops no further than the 17.68 level and targeting first the 16.40 level and then the 15.70 level.